A commenter asks a $6.4 billion dollar question:
I used to believe that in ten years (which can pass in the blink of an eye), tuition will go from its current level of $45,000 to $73,000; the number of law schools would go from 200 to about 220 and the "% of law grads getting real lawyer jobs" would go from its current 50% rate to about 25-30%.No one can know precisely when the current model of American legal education will collapse, or whether that collapse will be sudden, or take place in the social equivalent of slow motion. But the crash is coming. Here's the cyber-equivalent of an Escher drawing in regard to this question. First, a post from Top Law Schools, in which a Michigan State Law School 3L offers to take questions (Note that MSU is, to the extent such a definition makes sense, an ideal representative of an "average" ABA law school, in that it's currently ranked 95th-99th out of 200 ABA-accredited schools. We are, in other words, a very long way from the bottom). Naturally, he's asked if he and his law school friends and acquaintances have jobs. His response:
In other words I assumed that we were far from that critical point.
But now I wonder.
Could we see some of the really notorious low ranked school (e.g. that one that rhymes with stooley) have trouble filling all their seats this year? That would be such an incredible development if true.
I do not have a job. Several of my friends have jobs lined up (two in large firms, two in a medium-sized firm, one with a corporation, etc). However, I have a lot of friends (I'm counting 8 just off the top of my head) who graduated last year and they all have jobs now. Of course this is all anecdotal...I don't know what the percentage of employed 3Ls is. It's a pretty dismal market (as I'm sure you know) but, honestly, I'm not too worried about it. I've received an outstanding education at Michigan State and I realize I may need to wait until after I pass the bar to find a job. It sucks but it is what it is. It's just gonna take some flexibility and patience I think...through no fault of my own or MSU.Here's the other half of the drawing.
Obviously the placement is great in Michigan and pretty good in Chicago (especially if you spend 1L or 2L summer out there). Our DC placement is pretty rad too because we have a semester program down there. There's a large MSU alum group in DC as well.
For all I know MSU just threw its NALP stats up on the internet this week (perhaps in response to the Law School Transparency Project's request to all ABA schools that they do so), so this student doesn't even know these stats are now available. Or perhaps he doesn't want to know what they are. Under the circumstances, this would be a perfectly understandable defense mechanism.
The short version of these statistics can be summed up in less than 30 words: Nine months after graduation, MSU Law School had determined that 33 of the 348 graduates of its 2010 class were employed as attorneys in positions that paid $60,000 or more. The average law school debt of the 85% of the class that graduated with such debt was $108,444.
In the wake of those two sentences, it really shouldn't be necessary to continue the autopsy in any greater detail, but those of a morbid disposition can linger over such factoids as the specific employment status of the 150 graduates listed as "employed" in the private practice of law. This group includes 12 solos, 69 [!] graduates employed full-time with firms of 2 to 10 attorneys, and nine more employed part-time with firms of that size -- and one of these was listed a temporary employee. Think about that: part of what counts as "employed as an attorney" for the purpose of all those NALP figures is part-time temporary employment with a firm of ten lawyers or less . . . but again, what's the point of lingering over the crash site's gory details? Better to simply note most of the people at the scene were killed, a few escaped with injuries of varying severity, and one guy walked away without a scratch (he must have been the one paying attention in Drivers Ed).
A side issue about which I'm genuinely curious: what's with the huge numbers of graduates who are listed as taking jobs with firms of 2-10 attorneys? Fully a third of the national class of 2009 who are listed as working in private practice nine months after graduation are in this category, and at lower-tier schools the percentage is much higher. Conversely, at elite schools practically no one is in this group. Intuitively, one would think it would be quite difficult to get a real job with an enterprise that would on average have to increase its total attorney workforce by 20% just to hire you. I suspect that many jobs in this category are semi-imaginary: that is, they are temporary contract positions, featuring low hourly pay and no benefits, or (often unpaid) clerking gigs that in palmier days were filled by law students, or they represent a couple of equally unemployed classmates banding together to start a "firm."
Anyway, the juxtaposition of the MSU 3L's post and the newly published MSU placement stats raises the fundamental question of just how much real transparency, when it arrives (and we are still far away from that point), will affect the decisions of people who will have to decide whether the kind of tradeoff represented in those employment and indebtedness stats makes any sense for them.
We have a long way to go, but, on the last day of 2011, we are a lot closer to answering that question than we were on the previous New Year's Eve.
Which reminds me: Happy New Year. Let's hope it's a good one.
Regarding the poor kid without a job and hisReplyDelete
"I'll get one after I pass the bar" delusion - the reality is that he will be no more marketeable than a Cooley or Detroit Mercy graduate who passes the bar. He will be just another unemployed drone with a license looking for work, and the market is flooded with these types. I don't want to get him down or anything, but at this point it is crystal clear that he made a bad decision to pay tuition at MSU in lieu of taking a scholarship at those schools.
"Nine months after graduation, MSU Law School had determined that 33 of the 348 graduates of its 2010 class were employed as attorneys in positions that paid $60,000 or more. The average law school debt of the 85% of the class that graduated with such debt was $108,444."ReplyDelete
Excellent summary of stats that, while good and relatively comprehensive, might be confusing for some readers. You really need to narrow your sights in on the reported salaries statistic, as that is the best way to distinguish good from bad placement.
In total 24.4% of MSU graduates reported having any compensation, which is far below Chicago's (94%), far below Virginia's (80%), far below Michigan's (80% in prior years, around 56% this year), and far below Ohio State's (51%). It borders on NYLS's salary reporting rate.
I'm sure MSU will argue that the other 75% of graduates are earning similar salaries, but they did not report them, but I would bet money against that. I would literally bet money against that if it were possible, a lot of money.
Small firms hire a lot of work-for-free or $10-20/hour types with the idea being that they will give you some exposure to real law in exchange for your willingness to do grunt work (and let them benefit from your westlaw ID). Not a terrible deal really and that's why so many students seek out these opportunities.ReplyDelete
Will these firms eventually hire you as a real full time lawyer? Highly unlikely unless they suddenly benefit from a lot of rainmaking. And if you get tired of the low paying grunt work, there are fresh faced law students ready to replace you - AND THE STILL HAVE WORKING WESTLAW LOGINS!
If you don't believe me - google reema bajaj, learn about her, and then see how many associates (two) she has working for her at her small firm.
I have no doubt if MSUs graduates were working for firms that have salary data available on NALP (that pay market) or from other semi-public sources they would be counted as employed and their salaries reported, as it would only bring up the medians. When a school's % employed and % reporting salary figures are out of whack like this we should assume the graduates are not working for firms of that caliber. Unfortunately, prospective law students are unlikely to make that connection.ReplyDelete
It was the NY Times piece on 01/08/11, referenced in your article that made me aware of the law school scam. Until then, I always blamed myself for not having a good job and/or not being able to get another. I will never forget that day, it was a Saturday. It was the first day since graduating law school nearly 11 years ago that I came to the conclusion that my lot in life is not completely my fault. I may have actually cried that day.ReplyDelete
It is eye opening to find out you are not alone and that there is strength in numbers. I knew about the student loan scam for many years but the law school scam was new to me until that day. Amazing how the schools keep graduates ashamed and divided. I am angry that I blamed my myself (and only myself) all those years when the school played a huge role and had knowledge of that role. I have made it my mission to inform all the graduates of my school and all my lawyer friends of the Scam. None of them had a clue either.
My law school is ranked slightly below this dump. It would suggest that the numbers may be even lower at my school.
33 of 348 only make over 60K with 108K of non-dischargeable debt? Am I reading that correctly? Whoa. Along with my "school", this "school" should be shut down.
We don't need to assume anything, since the reported stats themselves reveal that 4% of the class is working for firms of more than 100 lawyers, and a total of less than 10% of the class is working for firms of more than 25 lawyers.ReplyDelete
I doubt there are even 40 people (out of a class of 348) who have what could be called a real job with a law firm (long-term full-time employment).
Let's at least give MSU credit for being honest enough to disclose this information, which is a lot more than you can say about true fraud schools like Loyola Law School.ReplyDelete
I agree MSU should get credit for disclosing this info. I don't know whether they're doing it out of a sudden sense of ethical obligation or out of a desire to insulate themselves from future litigation liability, or from a combination of factors, but in any case it's a good thing, especially since every school that does this will put pressure on others to do the same.ReplyDelete
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I agree. Not to toot our own horns, but wouldn't it be amazing if this blog had some impact on the sudden increase in disclosure?ReplyDelete
I do, though, think you're right in giving most of the credit to the blessed Mr. Aniszka.
That Reema Bajaj link is a must view. Those poor interns.ReplyDelete
Interesting post on the Henderson article.ReplyDelete
Zaring with his "law school loan have a low default rate" and "you wouldn't get a job in another program either" nonsense.ReplyDelete
Here's what I wrote in response. Law professors really make me want to vomit with their dishonesty.
By your morality, if we lived in a world where all cars were of low quality, then a used car lot would be doing nothing wrong when they lie and claim that their cars are Mercedes - because that lot's cars were still as good as you could find in the world. By your twisted ethics, you have turned the tort of fraud into some incoherent concept that I can no longer understand.
If someone wants to choose a PhD in literature program, because they like literature, and someone chooses a law program because they wanted a job (and thought they would get one based on fraudulent and misleading statistics) - the fact that neither of them will get a job doesn't render these two situations equal.
All law schools should honestly warn their applicants of historical job placement. I believe they should also warn the students that law schools are mental illness factories (studies show that while only 4% of 0Ls are depressed, 40% of 3Ls are depressed). They should also warn them of so much more. But that would require morality. Truth requires morality, and apparently that's something lacking in legal academia. Perhaps that explains the depression in law students - how else would you expect humans to feel when exposed to such things?
"Federal school loan default rates are 9%."
That's because almost all the situations in which law graduates fail to make the scheduled principal and interest payment is not counted in that brazenly misleading number.
If I go on IBR and pay zero on my loans, that is not counted as a default even though I am paying zero interest and principal. If I go on unemployment deferment, same thing. Same thing if I go on economic hardship deferment.
In a mere two sentences, Mr. Zaring, you have shown yourself to be an astonishingly dishonest person. Dear Lord help anyone who is unfortunate enough to rely on you for anything.
Very quick on the draw, you are!ReplyDelete
Great point about people from elite schools not working at firms with 2-10 attorneys. Comparison between schools is a good way to combat the idea that such jobs are any good. Likewise for non-legal jobs. Brian T. made that point in a somewhat recent post by showing how many graduates of elite schools take non legal jobs after graduation. Almost none.ReplyDelete
"A side issue about which I'm genuinely curious: what's with the huge numbers of graduates who are listed as taking jobs with firms of 2-10 attorneys? Fully a third of the national class of 2009 who are listed as working in private practice nine months after graduation are in this category, and at lower-tier schools the percentage is much higher. "ReplyDelete
I think this is easily explained. I imagine that many of these unemployed grads band together with others and form firms as opposed to solo practices. I know that if I were in their position, I would try to buddy up as soon as possible. I would further bet that most of those 69 are in firms of 2 or 3.
Conversely, I think this doesn't happen as much at elite schools, because the pool of unemployed grads is significantly smaller, meaning that of a particular group of friends/acquaintances, the unemployed is likely the only one, or, also likely, everyone knows why that particular person is unemployed and doesn't want them in the foxhole with them.
Not everyone even wants to work at a large law firm, so none of these numbers are relevant.ReplyDelete
^How law professors actually think.
In re 2-10 person firms:ReplyDelete
First, one of my professors would set up unemployed research assistants with the small firm's she knew to have them "employed" while they looked for real work. In this instance there was only charitable intent. You look better to an employer when you are holding down a job.
Second, at least one person I met a my middling law school went almost directly to work for their family's small practice. In one instance my friend's father and mother were the named parters in a 6 lawyer firm that represented a few school districts in the middle of nowhere. She spent about six months working for a city agency for very poor pay, then went to work for her family's firm.
Interestingly, I heard secondhand that my school's career center remarked that the city agencies don't take people from my school as readily any longer because the city agencies can now get Columbia and NYU grads to work for 30K.
I worked for several small firms after graduating 20 years ago. How do small firms afford the salaries of new associates? It's easy. They use an Eat What You Kill (EWYK) arrangement. In my case, I was allowed to keep 40 cents of every dollar I brought in the door. No benefits. If I didn't bring in any fees in a given week, I didn't get paid. This amounted to a "salary" of about $18K a year.ReplyDelete
I hate to say it, but I think this is what the future of legal employment looks like.
Do you guys remember that asshole at the small firm in Michigan, who criticized law students for wanting biglaw jobs and not wanting to "help people" like he did? I think there was an entire post about him here.ReplyDelete
Then it turned out that he wouldn't hire any lawyer unless they had a lot of experience . . .
How about this for an idea: Split students into those looking to understand the legal system, and who do not want to practice, from those who want to be lawyers.
Law schools no longer off the same program to all students. Some students get a JD in legal theory, which would look a lot like your current curriculum. Others get a JD in legal practice, which would have a core curriculum of practical courses. It would essentially look like a law firm's training program. No Dworkin; all Gerry Spence adjunct types.
Schools would no longer have to publish career placement data for the first program and anyone entering the first program would essentially be admitting that they do not want to work as a lawyer. If the first program attracts enough . . . oh never mind this is a dumb idea.
I think most of these ideas are right, but I don't know how much we can read into the Michigan State stats.ReplyDelete
Most law students would probably on balance prefer a job at a larger firm than one at a 2-10 person firm for their first job. (BL1Y's point is well taken: most people don't want to be at a large firm forever, but for practical reasons, most law grads want a job at one for a few years, even if law professors have no interest in going into Biglaw practice.)
That said, not all of the small-firm type of jobs for recent grads are of the essentially fraudulent volunteer or $10 an hour variety. For example, a friend who went to Brooklyn Law told me a lot of his classmates ended up working, on a permanent basis, as lawyers for small shops in Brooklyn or lower Manhattan that would probably be in the 2-10 person range. They did criminal, family, individual trusts and estates, DUIs -- all the kinds of law that actually impact people, but are not practiced by large firms. These were probably not their dream jobs and are not enough to service massive debt for those who have it - the pay is something like $45-60K in NYC - but that's not the same as saying the job is a fraud and does not exist. We simply need better data in this area to understand numbers like the ones Michigan State has reported.
Also, although it is mid-ranked, MSU may not be an accurate barometer since the Michigan economy is the worst in the country and the school is heavily regional.
My two cents.
Many graduates have and will continue to have a tough time getting a job but this should not stop an individual from going after the profession they desire. Of course law schools should publish meaningful job statistics but I doubt for many it would make much of a difference. Even now that the gig has been blown wide open, law schools are full and receiving more and more applications. Also, don't we regularly see people taking undergraduate and graduate degrees in areas where there is not a chance of getting a job. ( check the course offerings at Yale). If you go to law school and want to become a lawyer, you should do it for the right reasons. If this is the case, you will find a job (eventually) as long as you keep plugging away at it. I at times get fed up with the whining of law students over getting taken advantage of by their law schools. This is especially the case with the new group that should have all of the information. Sure, schools should not mislead but students have to take some of the responsibility for their decisions. Did they really think that being a lawyer would be a printing press? come on.ReplyDelete
"Also, although it is mid-ranked, MSU may not be an accurate barometer since the Michigan economy is the worst in the country and the school is heavily regional."ReplyDelete
...and Tom Cooley floods the Michigan market with thousands of grads (literally) every year.
I'm a recent grad and I work for a 2-10 firm. I like that I get to work with clients and the work I do directly effects them.
10:33, I agree with you and that's why the reported salary statistics are so important. It allows us to distinguish, e.g., those volunteer jobs from the real ones that pay $45k.ReplyDelete
For what it's worth, Michigan State's salary reporting percentage is a mere 24%.
One clue to how many of those 2-10 lawyer firm jobs are real is that MSU has salary data for 12 of 69 grads at those firms. For firms of more than 50 people it has salary data for 19 of 22 graduates.ReplyDelete
LawProf: That discrepancy may say more about the degree to which the data is filled in from publicly available sources (as opposed to alumni questionnaires) than it does about the legitimacy of the small firm jobs.ReplyDelete
Salary data for large firms is publicly available, so the CSOs can fill it in for most grads who work at many such firms. For small firms they would have to get an actual answer from the graduates, which is administratively difficult.
These numbers are not encouraging, but we need to know more about them to interpret them properly.
10:33: I agree, but these stats are terrible even if you assume every single graduate who is listed as working full-time in a job requiring a law degree has a real job. That's still only 43% of the class. The real number is certainly lower, but whether it's 35% or 20% or even less is something we don't know yet.ReplyDelete
12:16, before making up the statement (the excuse) that top school csos fill in data, we should verify that it's a true statement. The practice of saying whatever you imagine, without verifying it first, needs to stop.ReplyDelete
p.s. there's nothing stopping a Cso from calling small firms to verify salaries.ReplyDelete
I don't know. Maybe they thought that the median graduate would have a good chance of getting the published median salary, or indeed any salary. Or that 90%+ employment after 9 months of graduation meant that almost no one was shut out of the profession of law, instead of anywhere between a fifth and half depending on which school we're discussing.
Not sure @10:33 could have misinterpreted my comment any more.ReplyDelete
Prof: I really appreciate everything you've done to expose the misleading nature of the employment stats and salary figures. One thing that strikes me as disgusting is that every law student who applies to a bar will have to submit to a character & fitness evaluation. How do you suppose our law schools and the administrators who provide such misleading stats would do in such an evaluation? It seems almost Orwellian that students who've been duped into spending six figures have to submit to such an evaluation and suffer the indignity of explaining why they didn't report an underage drinking ticket on their law school apps when the law schools themselves are engaged in a gross and obvious fraud.ReplyDelete
I'm not going to try and pretend that MSU is a top-tier law school and its graduates will have an easy time finding a job. It's not, and they won't. However, MSU is a misleading example simply because of its location. Detroit's economy is still decimated, and without another big market close by, there isn't anywhere for MSU grads to go.ReplyDelete
Is it a bubble? Or just a market correction? One can make the generous assumption that for 10% of graduates, a law degree is worth 5 or 6 million dollars in extra life earnings if discounted down to the year of enrollment. Even if a law degree were worthless for the other 90%, the average value of a law degree is at least half a million dollars.ReplyDelete
From this perspective, 150k is a bargain.
"One can make the generous assumption that for 10% of graduates, a law degree is worth 5 or 6 million dollars in extra life earnings."ReplyDelete
Care to share the math to back that statement up? Maybe if you make your assumption that but for law school your typical Cravath associate would have wound up working at Starbucks, but somehow I find that highly unlikely.
@nyc: If you just invested $150,000 for 30 years and got a very modest 4% average rate of return, you'd have $497k at the end of 30 years, making your law degree a wash.ReplyDelete
If you do just a little bit better, a 5% rate of return, that money is worth $670k. Keep it in for another 5 years and you're up to $860k. Your law degree is starting to look like a pretty losing investment.
Also, the whole idea of looking at a law degree as an investment is ridiculous.ReplyDelete
A JD is not an annuity that just spits out money at you every year. It doesn't even let you go back to your old job with a significant pay raise. The JD just opens up the door to jobs that are stressful, have long hours, and are unrewarding. The jobs may pay better than your alternatives, but odds are you're also working harder for that money.
You're being trolled, man.ReplyDelete
The most effective direction for the movement to take at this stage is a massive communication campaign to college career counselors, and parents of undergraduates.ReplyDelete
Grassroots leaflet drop type stuff. Something similar to the proactive public health education campaign on HIV (seriously, a pamphlet with some key statistics urging people to protect themselves before they ruin their lives, people speaking about their experiences at campuses across the country, etc.).
People outside the law school world simply have no idea what's going on. If college career counselors, and parents were educated directly, it would drive many of the potential future victims to not chose law school.
Starve the tumor of its bloodsupply, and it will die.
I am giving a lecture at a small regional university in the spring about the dangers of attending law school. I am a practitioner in a nearby city. I plan on doing exactly what you describe. I hope that I will be invited to speak at other universities as a result.
I agree that more needs to be done to reach out to college counselors and undergraduate professors. I think most of them would genuinely care about the outcomes of their students. We need to do more to target them directly.
"Similar to a proactive public health education on HIV," "ruin their lives" Give me a break and sounds a bit dramatic to me. Law schools should clean up their act with regard to the information they provide but do not try to tell me that students are that blind when they are deciding whether or not to go to law school. During and after college, most students select a career based on what they think they will like and many select fields where there is little or no chance of getting a job. Even with the knowledge of law jobs, I still have the strong advice for my children that they should go to law school. (even if they do not want to practice law). Law school taught me a great deal and I would not give that up for anything. While second Anonymous is giving lectures at the small regional university about the horrors of law school, he/she should also point out to all of the students taking history, art, philosophy, acting, finance, education, etc. that they too are going to have a tough time finding a job and most graduate from college jobless or with jobs that are not in their field of study. This is not great but if they truly have an interest in their field of study they will eventually find work in it. While some (very few I think) were snookered by law school job stats, many use this as an excuse because they just don't like law school (or do not want to be lawyers). I really wonder how many actually relied on the job stat page when they were deciding whether or not to go to law school. I know that I was not aware of any statistics when I applied.ReplyDelete
"During and after college, most students select a career based on what they think they will like and many select fields where there is little or no chance of getting a job."ReplyDelete
But unlike law, those other fields don't require 3 years AND ~$200k to attend. And in most cases, those other fields don't pretend or try to give the impression that those fields are actually lucrative.
Sure people study and get PhDs in philosophy and literature and art history and what not. But these people don't spend $200k to do it and no one thinks that degree will be lucrative.
Many naive lemmings go to law school thinking it is still a field full of "prestige" with an (eventual) potential for decent earnings. If they knew the full truth MANY (though not all) would think twice.
Good trolling though.
A few things. First, I agree law schools should accurately report stats on employment. I think we can all agree on that. I am even happy that some have sued law schools - not because I think they deserve a penny but because the bad publicity and pressure may force law schools to accurately report.ReplyDelete
I also think though that many students who are now complaining did not in fact rely on the job statistics posted by law schools. Perhaps they simply did not like law school. Moreover, even if they did rely on the stats, they should take some responsibility for their decision because simple internet searches or discussions with a few people would have shed some light on the fact that not every lawyer is making a six digit salary. (also in terms of the length of time it takes to get a law degree, some of those "other fields" take a considerable amount of time - CPA - over 4 years (courses and exams), MBA - 2 years (many unemployed here too), PHD - longer (and many unemployed), college - 4 years (many unemployed)).
Also, I am not sure what the "full truth" is that you refer to. I went to Brooklyn Law School for my first year (graduated in 2010) and it is true that when I sat for the bar that summer, many did not have jobs (legal or other). Now though, most do have jobs in a legal field. They may not be making hundreds of thousands of dollars but neither are many MBAs, Accountants or other professionals. Finding a high paying job is very tough and those who thought that a law degree would guarantee them this were simply not being realistic. It is a tough market and economy and almost every profession has a tough time finding jobs. Moreover, a law degree will help you in many other fields. I also have an M.B.A and to tell you the truth I have found my JD much more helpful.
While again I agree law schools should be honest and students should be educated, I think law students and lawyers should join the profession because they want to become lawyers and love the law.
"Finding a high paying job is very tough and those who thought that a law degree would guarantee them this were simply not being realistic. It is a tough market and economy and almost every profession has a tough time finding jobs."ReplyDelete
Complete strawman. Law grads aren't angry because they felt entitled and "guaranteed" to a "high paying" job. They are angry because many can't get ANY job and felt essentially lied to. When a school charges $40k/year in tuition and gives give misleading impression that you will get at least a job that will pay the bills, they are rightfully angry.
$40k jobs get flooded with apps and many are even working for FREE in the hopes in will lead to a job that can pay the bills, nevermind a "high paying job".
Also those "other professions" by and large don't require the expenditure of ~$200k and three years of schooling which doesn't even teach you the practice of the profession.
"Moreover, a law degree will help you in many other fields."
That is more or less complete BS. A lot of people have reported that listing the JD when applying for non-legal jobs has actually HURT them and they are advised to LEAVE IT OFF the resume! They number of people helped by listing their JD for non-legal jobs is dwarfed by the number harmed.
I am at MSU right now, but have a full-scholarship and and am at the top of the class (top 1%). What amazes me is that the school claims to be transparent, but does not mention numbers at any orientations or classes.It feels like they put these numbers out, cross their fingers, and hope no body reads the reports. Sure, I'll be OK given my grades and lack of any debt, but my class is approx. 300 people.ReplyDelete
After one year, it seems like everyone thinks they are smarter than they are. Like, "I won't be that person." At the end of the day, most like being professional students and won't make it far in the working world. I have a lot to work on myself, but I can at least admit it and serious try to network and ace exams.
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