Wednesday, December 7, 2011

There are no new jobs

I've just gotten William Ian Miller's new book, LOSING IT: in which an aging professor LAMENTS his shrinking BRAIN, which he flatters himself formerly did him Noble Service.  It is, as anyone who has read Miller's previous books can anticipate, mordantly hilarious:


Occasionally I flatter myself that I am earning my keep, contributing more than I am consuming. And unlike those football players and boxers who do not know when to quit, professors, like me, cannot be cut. Tenure and age discrimination laws let us keep working, which somehow does not seem the right word. Besides, there are always a couple of lazy colleagues whose real contribution to the enterprise is to make less lazy ones feel like we deliver value for the price. Never mind that my keep would fund four entry-level scholars in history or anthropology who are now unemployed: I still have kids of my own to feed, though I might be feeding them with someone else’s. Self-deception and wishful thinking, looking on the bright side in a self-interested way, keep us conveniently color blind to our real value, seeing black when the ink is red. Or simply not caring if it is red, when we see it.
Miller, who taught me (after a fashion) property law 25 years ago, was born at the beginning of the baby boom, while I was born near the end.  I'm old enough now to read this passage with a genuine shudder of no longer abstract recognition, as opposed to laughing at it with the insouciance of a still-young man.

One of the many disadvantages of getting old is that it becomes increasingly difficult to recognize that the world is in fundamental ways no longer the world of your youth -- that things have changed in a way to which you cannot relate, or to which you can only partially relate after a massive effort to break through the complacency which age gradually imposes on you like some sort of psychological sediment.

In dealing with my colleagues regarding the issues touched on in this blog, I find it's remarkably difficult to get them to accept that there aren't any new legal jobs.  This wasn't the way things were when they were younger, and so it simply can't be the case. Or rather, they remember economic downturns from 20 or 30 years ago, and the difficulties people -- perhaps even they -- had getting jobs, and they think, this is like that, and everything turned out fine in the long run.

Both those beliefs are mistaken: everything didn't turn out fine in the long run -- for many years now huge numbers of law graduates haven't had real legal careers -- and, more to the present point, this is not like that.

Recently I've been emphasizing that, according to long-term projections, American law schools are going to be turning out two graduates for every available legal job.  It's worth noting that the present situation is actually worse than that.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the "legal sector" (this means everybody employed in a legally-related job, not just attorneys, i.e., paralegals, other admin staff, etc.) added 100 jobs in November.  That's in America. 100 jobs. Total.

This, by the way, counts as comparatively good news, since the legal sector is down 3,100 jobs since last November.  This suggests that, over the past year, ABA law schools haven't cranked out two new lawyers for every available job, but rather that the ratio has been even worse than that.

There are no new jobs.  What that means is that every new lawyer who gets a job is, as a matter of current economic reality, taking a job from a previously employed lawyer (in some cases this will involve retirement, death, or a genuinely voluntary exit from the profession, but in many cases it won't).  People focus on the entry-level job market for attorneys, and of course that's crucial, but they tend to forget that the problems of our industry go way beyond the fact that half of our newest crop of graduates aren't getting real legal jobs of any sort.  What about our graduates from two and four and six years ago, a large percentage of whom are losing their jobs, and are currently every bit as legally unemployed as our graduates who never got a legal job in the first place?  Do we know what the percentage is for the graduates of our particular law school? We do not, because we have not made the relevant inquiries.

Again, there are no new jobs.   On net, this is not hyperbole: it is a simple statistical truth.  The "optimistic" take from the BLS is that things will soon get "better," and we can get back to producing two new attorneys for every new legal job. But right now the American economy is losing legal jobs -- and the ratio of new lawyers to available positions may well be quite a bit worse than two to one.

78 comments:

  1. It's fine to keep talking about the problem, articulately, but when is *anyone* going to be held accountable in any way?

    Where I live, If a Mexican cart sells a bad burrito to a day laborer, that day laborer will be up that cart owner's a** and the ensuing yelling and trouble will not be worth it. The cart owner may even get sued.

    Why is it that in every other segment of the economy, producers who rip consumers off get their a** handed to them, but law schools get away with it without even one angry phone call?!

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  2. What do you mean there are no jobs? BL1Y - Graduate of New York University School of Law which claims to be the 5th best school in the country - had a lead on a job at Target.

    http://www.jdunderground.com/jdu/thread.php?threadId=22386#post317621

    There are thousands of T14 grads just like him.

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  3. Because most if not all, who have graduated from LAW school just don't want to rock the boat. You are all risk adverse and if your deemed to be a trouble maker no firm will touch you. Your screwed.

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  4. LawProf:

    You seem to be overinterpreting the net jobs figure. Could you address its demographic dimension?

    I have heard the average age of lawyers is around 50, which I’m willing to bet is above most professions. That means that in addition to the large number of young lawyers out there, there are a lot of baby-boom lawyers looking to retire now or soon. (This is to say nothing of lawyers leaving practice by choice for other jobs, which other commenters speculate only happens among Yalies, or leaving the work force entirely to raise children.) What does retirement have to do with predicting job availability for new lawyers, who would not take their place directly? I would guess a lot, but we don't know how much on the basis of these numbers.

    For example, if 2% of lawyers leave practice each year for retirement alone, and half their positions are replaced in the same year, looking only at the BLS’s “net lawyer jobs created” figure will make it appear that there are significant job losses in the field of law. Now, *there are and have been* significant job losses in the field on a net basis (as the Law School Tuition Bubble points out), but it’s a leap from “net jobs created” to “new jobs for new graduates.” You make this leap in your claim that in the past year, ABA law schools have “cranked out” 45,000 new graduates for “slightly less than zero” jobs. On the basis of the data you have cited, we don’t know even approximately what proportion of net job gains (or losses) should be allocated to new lawyers.

    In short, as I keep saying, (a) many lawyers are having a tough time out there right now, and (b) many law schools are being less than forthcoming with data, but (c) I’m not sure your interpretation of the BLS’ net jobs numbers actually demonstrates (a).

    Bring it, trolls.

    -Method Man (appreciated the moniker, LawProf)

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  5. "Because most if not all, who have graduated from LAW school just don't want to rock the boat. You are all risk adverse and if your deemed to be a trouble maker no firm will touch you. Your screwed."

    You sound like a lawyer I want to hire to fight for me.

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  6. MM: Good point, which I've edited the post to reflect.

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  7. LawProf:

    Thank you. I could nitpick, but I think this is a major improvement. I also applaud your focus on job outcomes five years out and beyond. In general (in law and other professions) I think we could all benefit from a longer-term picture of what people make, whether they are employed, and whether they like their jobs. Maybe the Census, Pew, BLS, or Gallup would be well positioned to conduct such studies?

    -MM

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  8. Methodology Man,

    Have you written one letter or email, or made one phone call to anyone in charge of publishing law school career placement statistics to critique their method?

    You obviously have plenty of time to do what you do, why is LawProf the only recipient?

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  9. RecentGrad: So what does this say about me? RecentGrad has a personality disorder? Motivation problem? Can’t hack it in the real world? Is that why I quit my unpaid internship and started looking for a non-legal job?
    LawProf: Didn't know you had. Wanna talk about it?
    [RecentGrad shakes his head, stares off]
    LawProf: RecentGrad, you see this, all this s**t?
    [Holds up RecentGrad’s overdue loan statement and resume, and drops it on his desk]
    LawProf: It's not your fault.
    RecentGrad: [Softly, still staring off] I know...
    LawProf: No you don't. It's not your fault.
    RecentGrad: [Serious] I know.
    LawProf: No. Listen to me son. It's not your fault.
    RecentGrad: I know that.
    LawProf: It's not your fault.
    [RecentGrad is silent, eyes closed]
    LawProf: It's not your fault.
    RecentGrad: [RecentGrad's eyes open, misty already] Don't f*** with me LawProf. Not you.
    LawProf: It's not your fault.
    [RecentGrad shoves LawProf back, and then, hands trembling, buries his face in his hands. RecentGrad begins sobbing. LawProf puts his hands on RecentGrad's shoulders, and RecentGrad grabs him and holds him close, crying]
    RecentGrad: Oh my God! I'm so sorry! I'm so sorry LawProf!
    [RecentGrad continues sobbing in LawProf's arms]

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  10. That was dumb. I love when people try to be funny or witty in the comments, but that sucked.

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  11. The other thing the post touches on before it changes topic are the issues with tenure. I can name a whole ton of profs at Lawprof's school that don't deserve tenure (or to be 'teaching').

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  12. Biglaw is a giant pyramid scheme. The best employment numbers are at its very base.

    Contract lawyer work is also sort of a pyramid scheme. The more cases you take on, the more you get conflicted, and eventually you can't find work.

    Small law/solo work. Many try it, but most drop out and the dream soon dies as the economic reality sets in.

    Gov't is not hiring. Hiring freeze.

    The numbers are undoubtedly the very best at the very beginning.

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  13. Great post. I read it all the while saying to myself "yes, yes, yes."

    I recently heard a story of a 12 year associate (yes, never made partner, but stayed at the same firm) who was let go. She was magnum cum, law review, great reputation, just never made partner b/c she had babies, now unable to find any legal employment. That's after 8 months of looking.

    Imagine a doctor or nurse, with a similar reputation, unable to find *any* employment after 8 months.

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  14. She should try to get a job as a law professor at a low ranked law school.

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  15. 9:11: She's not going to be able to get a legal academic job, as she's practiced way too much law.

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  16. 9:11 - I know you and LawProf are goofing around, but your posts raise an interesting question. I get the sense that more and more lower-tiered schools might consider someone like this woman (if she wrote something good - I don't mean that they're completely changing their hiring requirements). There's increased emphasis on creating "practice ready" lawyers, and lots of places, especially the lower ranked places, are thinking about what that means for hiring. That might be a good thing - I leave that to the side for now. What I wonder about are the ethics of it all. Imagine you're someone with considerable law practice experience. And let's sweeten the pot by saying that you also have real teaching experience and you have reason to believe that the combination of the two might lead to some great things in law teaching. Like you might make a real difference in some students' lives and careers. (Yes, I know it would be impossible to know whether this would be true going in, but let's just say you could know it.) Would it still be unethical to work (collect a salary from) a school with piss poor employment numbers? I ask this sincerely, not with snark. I see arguments both ways, of course. But in the end, I think it's probably more problematic to take the job than not.

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  17. @8:50 a.m.
    You are exactly correct. Biglaw is a giant pyramid scheme. The best employment numbers are at its very base. Therefore, law schools reporting only first year starting salaries at all is a part of the legal education system's deception. For a large percentage of lawyers, the most money they ever make in their career (adjusted for inflation) is the biglaw firm salary for their first 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 years.

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  18. "There's increased emphasis on creating "practice ready" lawyers,"

    This woman can't get any legal work. How is she "practice ready?"

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  19. Ok, that made me laugh. Fair enough. I take it your answer is no. There aren't enough jobs to go around, and so lower-tiered schools shouldn't even exist. I'm sympathetic to that view.

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  20. Here's a "job" that was just posted on my law school's job board:

    Duke Law & Entrepreneurship LLM
    Duke University School of Law (Durham, NC)

    The Law and Entrepreneurship LLM at Duke Law integrates rigorous coursework, real-world experience, and high-level networking opportunities to position you to advise, create, and lead the innovative ventures that will drive tomorrows global economy. The program fuses law and business to build knowledge in areas that are crucial to startups and entrepreneurial ventures, including finance, corporate structuring, IP, regulatory constraints and opportunities, taxation, and risk management. The curriculum is designed to provide maximum flexibility so you can design the path that best meets your needs, and coursework is augmented by practical experience and networking opportunities.
    .
    Division
    Communications and Events
    Contact Information
    LLM Program in Law and Entrepreneurship
    Duke University School of Law
    210 Science Drive
    Box 90393
    Durham NC 27708-0393

    phone: (919) 613-7259
    fax: (919) 613-7257
    llmle@law.duke.edu

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  21. Speaking of which, LawProf, it's not only the lower tier schools scamming people out of tuition money with promises of jobs. The top tier schools - especially NYU - do it as well with these ridiculous LLM programs.

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  22. Methodology Guy, I trust you will be writing the Duke email address above to critique the various grossly misleading statements in that post?

    Please copy us on the email you write them.

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  23. BL1Y graduated from NYU law (top 5) and was in Biglaw for over a year. So he was one of the best and hit the lottery. Now looking for work at Target.

    http://www.jdunderground.com/jdu/thread.php?threadId=22386#post317621

    That should be a warning to anyone considering a law degree.

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  24. I have an honest question. I preface it in such manner because, well, it's so stupid as to seem a dishonest inquiry.

    But, really, what jobs are there for a Doctor of Jurisprudence aside from being a lawyer? I graduated from law school this past May. I have heard, countless times now, the line that "you can do so much with a J.D."

    And, I have talked with people in legal academia, practicing lawyers, business people. None can answer the question. I have done a fair bit of my own research. It seems to me that you can do nothing save practice law. A J.D. is a strange combination of being simultaneously under and over-qualified for most employment positions. (A pervese irony if true.)

    So, is it simply a fabrication akin to the claimed employment statistics I was told? Was it ever true? I simply find it hard to believe I was lied to so about so many things, so often, so brazenly.

    Hook. Line. Sinker.

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  25. Steroid boy troll is strong with this one.

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  26. Crux - its BS because law school doe not adequately prepare you to be a lawyer let alone anything else. Its just three years of mental masturbation, absorbing empty platitudes and paying for the lives that legal academics get to enjoy.

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  27. There are no jobs for a JD other than lawyer or law professor. Having a JD on your resume is the kiss of death for any non-law job. They automatically assume you will leave for a lawyer job as soon as you can.

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  28. @9:11-- I know a lot of mid-career lawyers in much the same position. Unless you have a book of business that you can take with you to a new employer, it is incredibly hard to find work if you are let go from a big firm job. If you do find And if you do find another legal job, chances are that it will pay less and offer less security than your old job. So you might go from being a non-equity partner or "tier-two shareholder" at the old place to being "of counsel" or a "staff attorney" at the new place. I wonder what effect this has on the legal employment picture.

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  29. "I know a lot of mid-career lawyers in much the same position. Unless you have a book of business that you can take with you to a new employer, it is incredibly hard to find work if you are let go from a big firm job."

    No. No. You are not "let go." You chose to go into another line of work. You can't prove that people who leave their job did so by force and not choice.

    - Methodology Guy

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  30. I just finished speaking to a 25+ year attorney. It's amazing to hear how ridiculously easy it was to get a job back then.

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  31. Youtube of Yale Graduate who worked for Lehman but now can't find anything, from a hit movie in 2011:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3Eqq_vRXS4

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  32. Hey Methodology Guy heres a Protip for you - you should choose "Name/URL" instead of "Anonymous" when clicking on the "Comment as:" choices....you then type in your moniker there. Makes for an easier read but your choice is acceptable as well. As someone who enjoys correcting others I though you might appreciate the tip.

    Steroid boy - no need to follow the same tip, your posts are self-revealing. I hope you got your morning squats in and didn't overdo it with the protein shake.

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  33. Oh great, it's that nut who has made it his mission to figure out who the anonymous commenters are.

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  34. Whoops, forgot to post as anonymous.

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  35. Mission? One guy actually signs his posts and the other couldn't be more obvious if he posted pics of his amazingly lithe yet powerful deltoids along with his entertaining comments.

    Thats not much of a mission. Maybe if roods has eaten away the impulse controls in my brain but otherwise....

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  36. Don't mock Meth mouth. He has two friends who left their jobs without being fired. He knows.

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  37. @MM -- I assume that you mean it would be really hard to do a study on any sort of mass basis, right? Just seeing that someone is looking for work doesn't tell you about why they don't have a job? Because in individual cases, it is really easy to tell when you are the recipient of a letter from the partnership committee telling you that your employment has been terminated.

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  38. MM:

    "That means that in addition to the large number of young lawyers out there, there are a lot of baby-boom lawyers looking to retire now or soon."

    lol @ Boomers "retiring".

    http://www.npr.org/2011/01/01/132490242/boomers-take-the-retire-out-of-retirement

    "In an AARP poll of people hitting 65 this year, Cone says, 40 percent have no intention of retiring.

    "The 40 percent is a much larger group than any generation before the boomers," he says. "But the other factor we see in the poll is that a lot of people feel they have to keep working.""

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  39. Assistant Criminal District Attorney

    Employer: Taylor County Criminal District Attorney's Office
    Location: Abilene, TX

    The Taylor County Criminal District Attorney's Office is currently seeking an Assistant Criminal District Attorney, licensed in the State of Texas, to handle misdemeanor cases in our County Courts. Entry level position with starting salary of $50,000.00 to $52,000.00 depending on experience, plus benefits. Experience in the handling of misdemeanor cases or any other area of criminal law a plus. Please contact James Eidson, 325-674-1261, or e-mail resume to grantd@taylorcountytexas.org, or mail resume to Taylor County Criminal District Attorney, 300 Oak, Ste. 300, Abilene, Texas 79602.

    http://www.tdcaa.com/job_bank/assistant-criminal-district-attorney

    ...that was posted a week ago.

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  40. The Scrub - not to mention that large sucking sound which is the amount of money being transferred from our generation to theirs in the form of entitlements. Ironic that their generation stripped away most subsidies (revenue for schools being one) except for the ones that benefit them the most. Ah, democracy at work.

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  41. to 10:28 through 10:35

    A link to a very good description of how a law degree is an impediment to a job outside of law...the exact opposite of the inaccuracies that are told regarding the versatility of a law degree...

    http://thepeoplestherapist.com/2010/11/03/extremely-versatile-crockery/#more-2831

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  42. Thanks for the link, Anon. Best line I saw was in the following comments: "a JD is as attractive to potential employers as a felony conviction." Awesome. Too early to start drinking?

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  43. Why hurt yourself by drinking when you should be calling your former Law School Dean and complaining?

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  44. Why assume the former doesn't directly lead to the latter?

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  45. Steroid boy...since you're so obsessed with calling people why don't you call your dean, record it and then post here. I will then call mine and hopefully this will be the slippery slope that starts the steroid boy revolution. Occupy Dullard Street!

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  46. Personally, I prefer to drink to the point where I forget that I went to law school and owe my soul to the company store. Then I listen to Bruce Springsteen's "downbound train" about fifty times.

    If you can work a phone, you're not doing it right.

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  47. Down.Bound.Train.

    I had a job; I had a girl; I had something going, mister, in this world.

    Then it goes to sh!t.

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  48. Terry Malloy,

    "You can't win with a losing hand"

    "Its not dark yet, but its getting there"

    - Bob Dylan

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  56. lawprof, the entire thread is replete with steroid boy troll, not just the last few comments.

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  57. "In dealing with my colleagues regarding the issues touched on in this blog, I find it's remarkably difficult to get them to accept that there aren't any new legal jobs."

    That may the case with faculty. However, the law school administrations are realizing that their students, for better or worse, are wondering why they are taking a mortgage on their future without a shot at getting a job in law. That's starting to filter through.

    This gem came out of my law school:

    http://www.law.umich.edu/quadrangle/fall2011/specialfeatures/Pages/theStateofLegalEducation.aspx

    They weren't writing articles like this when I graduated in 1999.

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  58. It's not trolling if it's the truth, no matter how much it hurts your feelings.

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  59. For the record, 10:39 was not me (I guess that's what happens when you don't bother creating a username).

    -Method Man

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  60. Sadly, the same is true in just about any industry these days, especially the ones with higher-paying jobs where there's more pressure to keep work forces small. All the job growth of the past 3 years has just barely been keeping up with population growth. The only read "job growth" has been in bottom-of-the-barrel jobs, like wal-mart and temp labor.

    The job market right now is absolutely dog-eat-dog. If you want a job, you have to take it away from someone else. That's a brutal fact that we all have to face right now, and the only way out is through organized political action.

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  61. I think I may have said this on another comment thread, sorry for the redundancy.

    From 2002 to 2007, the legal industry increased by only 1.2% (compared to the population). Since the recession started, it has shrunk by about 6.1%.

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  62. "Sadly, the same is true in just about any industry these days"

    No it's not. What industry are you thinking of specifically, because we'll find the numbers and show you why you're wrong.

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  63. Anyone watching the Republican debates? These people all seem insane. It's like we've gone back to the "if we dictate to the world they'll do whatever we want" delusion that caused the 00s.

    At the same time I'm really disappointed in Obama and don't want him to win either.

    Sigh.

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  64. You will show numbers that indicate other industries are providing a healthy amount of jobs?

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  65. @ the anonymous troll above:
    http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/12/chart-day-net-new-jobs

    For the economy as a whole, there are no new net jobs. There have not been any new net jobs since 2008. As long as the Republicans hold sway in Congress, and the rest of the world economy melts down, there will never be any new net jobs.

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  66. Oh, those dastardly Republicans. If only the Democrats could win the Presidency and both houses of Congress, then everything would be right in the world.

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  67. Mr. Pye,

    In your own link it says, "Bottom line: the number of net new jobs added in November was about 30,000." Other reports said 100,000 new jobs were added.

    So you're wrong even with the data in your cherry picked link.

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  68. @6:50: You have to read closer. He didn't say there was no month that say a net increase in jobs, but that there was no net increase since 2008.

    We have fewer jobs than we did in 2008, pretty sure that's what he's trying to say, and the data he linked to backs that up.

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  69. He changed what he said between his earlier and later statement.

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  70. HLS' curricular reform, 3 years in:

    http://prawfsblawg.blogs.com/prawfsblawg/2011/12/harvard-laws-curricular-reform-3-years-in.html

    Spoiler alert: reform that makes law school more practice-oriented and relevant is well received, but is (at least was in Harvard's case) quite expensive.

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  71. "He changed what he said between his earlier and later statement."

    No I didn't. I said that "All the job growth of the past 3 years has just barely been keeping up with population growth." Then I linked to data which showed just that. (OK, veerry slightly above population growth, but not nearly enough to repair the massive damage done in 2008. And most of those new jobs have been dead-end, low wage jobs.

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  72. @8:50: I read that differently:

    "Still, while I am not sure the students view it this way, given that the price of matriculating a 1L has not dramatically increased and we have added substantially to what the students learn, we seem to be offering much more bang for the buck than we did just a few years back."

    It's apparently not that much more expensive at all... although, I haven't actually looked at how Harvard's tuition has changed. Maybe going from $45k to $50k doesn't seem "dramatic" to a professor.

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  73. Graduated from a good law school in 1976 with honors. I have never made more than $35,000 from law. It has been awful for decades. More opportunities for secretaries and paralegals. Most people do not realize it. Have had my own practice.....the hardest check for anyone to write is to a lawyer...then hope it does not bounce. For every lawyer job advertised....probably 600-1000 apply...there are no jobs.

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