Saturday, September 8, 2012

Versus how many graduates?

My last post examined the number of entry-level lawyering jobs available during each year of the last decade. How many graduates of ABA law schools competed for those jobs? And how many law students lost out in the job lottery? Answering those questions takes two steps, because NALP does not gather job information about every graduate of an accredited law school. Before 2010, some schools did not report data to NALP. And, both before and after that date, participating schools fail to obtain information about some graduates.

With those caveats in mind, let's look first at the number of graduates who reported full-time jobs requiring bar admission compared to the number of graduates who reported any job information to NALP. Here is that information, with the percentage calculated in the last column. I've added 2001, so you can compare the current situation with the impact of the last general recession. [Unfortunately, I can't readily add figures for 2000, because NALP adopted the "bar admission required" category only in 2001.]

Jobs Requiring
Bar Admission
Employment Status Reported
Percent of Grads with FT Jobs Requiring Bar Admission

Full-Time Bar Admission Jobs


[Note that for the years before 2007 I report all "jobs requiring bar admission," while starting in 2007 I report full-time jobs. The NALP information on the web does not distinguish full-time and part-time jobs before 2007 but, as explained in my previous post, the number of those jobs was quite small in 2007 (and probably in previous years). The best comparison, from the available information, seems to be all bar-admission jobs before 2006 and full-time jobs after that year.]

The table shows that the percentage of graduates obtaining full-time lawyering jobs dropped dramatically after 2007. The percentages weren't that hot in 2007 and earlier years; about a quarter of law school graduates consistently missed out on jobs practicing law.

What happens if we look at the number of actual graduates in those years? Those numbers, of course, are higher than the number of graduates reporting employment outcomes. In 2001, there were 38,157 graduates of 183 accredited schools. That number climbed fairly steadily to 44,258 in 2011. The percentage of graduates reporting jobs to NALP also rose during this period, from 90.7% in 2001 to 94.0% in 2011.

What should we assume about the graduates (or schools) who didn't report job information to NALP? During the early part of the decade, some of these non-reporters would have been more likely than the reporters to have full-time lawyering jobs. The Columbia graduates, for example, probably beat the NALP average in that category. But during more recent years, the non-reporters are much less likely to hold full-time lawyering jobs. All schools now belong to NALP, and schools aggressively track graduates--especially the ones with good jobs. At the extreme, it is possible that none of the 2011 grads missing from the NALP figures obtained full-time lawyering jobs.

There's no way to know exactly how many of the missing graduates obtained full-time jobs requiring bar admission. But we can estimate a pretty secure range of numbers. It is very unlikely that non-reporters during the last few years obtained proportionately more lawyering jobs than their reporting classmates. So, if we apply the percentage of full-time lawyering jobs to the missing grads from the last five classes, and then add those totals to the reported jobs, we can generate a best-case prediction of the number of grads who obtained full-time lawyering jobs. Conversely, if we assume that none of the missing grads obtained full-time lawyering jobs, we produce a worst-case scenario. Here are the resulting numbers, all limited to just ABA-accredited law schools:

Total Grads
Number w/o Full-Time Lawyering Jobs (Best Case)
Number w/o Full-Time Lawyering Jobs (Worst Case)

Over the last five years, ABA accredited schools have graduated at least 73,652 students who did not obtain jobs practicing law within nine months of graduation--and that includes the best year on record for law graduates. Sure, some of those graduates didn't want to practice law. But most of them went to law school because they wanted to be lawyers--and all of them paid for a degree priced by the potential to practice law.

Over the last five years, between 33.5% and 38.1% of our total graduates failed to obtain the jobs most suited to their degrees. In the most recent year, 2011, the percentage was 40.2% (best case) to 44.0% (worst case). From a labor market perspective, that's a huge mismatch of educational investment and career outcomes. From the human perspective, this is a tragic waste of talent and life opportunities.


  1. One quibble:

    From a labor market perspective, that's a huge mismatch of educational investment and career outcomes.

    would be better if you added "and wasted human talent and potential"

    After all, we are talking about students that were generally very highly qualified before going to law school.

    1. I can't say that I had any interest in either engineering or law.

      I consider my career to be a waste of my talent and potential, but that's what happens when you select an undergraduate degree and a career out of a vending machine.

    2. Good - but there is a cold reptilian point to be made - that law schools are drawing from the top of the college graduate ability pool, and that economically the US as a whole loses when so many bright graduates are lured off track into a career dead-end.

      Perhaps in a later posting you or Professor Campos (or some law and economics type) could discuss the deadweight loss to the US economy (deadweight loss is the deficiency (smaller economy) caused by an inefficient allocation of resources) that results from the 3 years that these students spend earning their JDs as well as the impact of their subsequent underemployment in worse jobs than they probably would have had without the degree.

    3. Some law schools draw from the top college graduates. Many others, however, plumb the whey rather than skimming the cream. If law students with LSAT scores in the 130s were drawn from the top of the college-graduate pool, the problems are worse than I had thought.

    4. "Good - but there is a cold reptilian point to be made - that law schools are drawing from the top of the college graduate ability pool, and that economically the US as a whole loses when so many bright graduates are lured off track..."

      I'm sorry, but I really don't know whether or not I can credit this. I frankly viewed LS as an easy 3 years; I did very well without really much in the way of mental exertion, despite continuing to work essentially FT during FT law school. There was nothing during LS that was mentally tough from a conceptual standpoint - yes, at times, the amount of reading required was tedious. But that's not the same a real intellectual challenge.

      All this to say that your idea that - with LS we are wasting the top of the pool - may be a bit overblown.

    5. That some law schools are reaching into the bottom mud does not change the reality that Tier 1 through most of Tier 2 are taking from the top of the pool, or that the majority of law students come from that category. An LSAT score of 150 tracks to an IQ of 120-122, 163 to 121-123, 170 to an IQ of around 131-133 or to put it another way upper 10%, upper 5% and upper 2%, i.e., superior intelligence to very superior intelligence.

      Now IQ is not everything and it has a lot of flaws as a measure of ability - and the LSAT is in fact a lot more rigorous than the usual IQ test as a test of various abilities (hard though this is to believe) - but the reality still comes down to most law schools:

      Taking LSAT 150 and above (upper 10% of ability range of all graduates)
      Taking (a) college graduates who graduated in 4 years (increasingly unusual)
      Taking GPAs above a 3.0 - not that common

      The 3rd tier may be reaching down pretty far, but until recently the 1st and 2nd tier were not.

      Feel free to correct my IQ numbers - I am not a psychologist

    6. Leaving aside for a moment my misgivings about IQ, I don't believe the claims made above. For one thing, they're inconsistent. For another, I'm not convinced that the scores on a test taken by a self-selected group (not the general public) of aspirant jurists, some of them with the wherewithal to train just for this test, are so tightly correlated to IQ.

      Were the LSAT administered to all graduating students rather than to the self-selected aspirants, scores would drop. Today's 150, vaunting herself "superior", might turn into a 140 or worse.

    7. I agree with your misgivings about IQ but there are other selection factors involved - completing high school, getting a decent SAT, getting decent GPA and then a good LSAT score. In effect LSAT, GMAT and GRE takers tend to already self-select to be above average to very high in the ability range.

      I know it is common to denigrate the LSAT as a test of aptitude for the practice of law - and that criticism is pretty fair, but as a test of general intelligence and ability it is pretty thorough and rigorous and a score over 150-160 means the taker is pretty bright - it is the going to law school that shows many to still be naïfs.

      A counter argument that does have some strength is that many LSAT/GRE/GMAT takers have already hurt their career chances by their choice of undergraduate major and that going to law/grad school is an attempt to remedy that mistake, though for many law school is like ripping the band-aid off the sucking chest wound. That in effect is the same issue at undergraduate level, that a lot of very able high school seniors are making bad choices in college that limits their futures.

  2. I like the formatting change. Using the "read more" feature makes it easier to see the previous posts on the blog. It's a shame that the previous posts so quickly get lost.

    One more suggestion: It would be nice to see which posts are getting current comments. That way, exchanges could happen more easily on older posts.

    Keep up the good work!

    1. also needs to make the background grey for easier reading.

  3. For all the people on this blog who say that the taxpayer is going to end up footing the bill for the LSS, this article argues that in the end, the government is doing a really good job collecting what it's owed...

    1. Yes, in the end the government just won't pay out SS in your old age if nothing else.

    2. "...the government recoups about 80 cents for every dollar that goes into default — an astounding rate, considering most lenders are lucky to recover 20 cents on the dollar on defaulted credit cards."

    3. "Government officials estimate they will collect 76 to 82 cents on every dollar of loans made in fiscal 2013 that end up in default. That does not include collection costs that are billed to the borrowers and paid to the collection agencies."

      Doesn't say whether the amount collected is in reference to the original principal loan or the running loan balance that consists of capitalized interest, late fees, origination fees, etc.

  4. So law school students got suckered into doubling down on law school debt. How many undergrads fine themselves in a similar position on a smaller scale? Which high Ed students aren't getting screwed these days? And right now these kids coming out I have a hard time feeling sorry for. I've counseled a number of prospective students against going into law school and none of them listen.

  5. I still feel sorry for students graduating now. Crüe word hasn't gotten out to everyone . I say in three to five years when this years entering class graduates, then everyone should begin to know.

    My prediction is that people will still go for a year, see how well they do, and then dropout. It becomes a 50k gamble instead of a 200,000 gamble.

  6. Thank-you, DJM, for all the extensive time and effort you have put into getting the word out. Finally, a 'law review article' that is actually relevant and of interest!

    W/ all the unknowns in the calculations, I offer something known to me: I don't think the figures quoted above actually do justice to the true situation, as based on what I gleaned from my acquaintances from law school. About 1 year out from law school, I kept tabs on what many of my classmates were doing, job-wise. About 50% worked in retail jobs or jobs paying less than $10 an hour. 20% did unpaid, volunteer legal jobs or were simply unemployed. Only 30% had legal jobs.

    All this talk about 55% being employed in legal jobs. 10 to 1, those jobs are $10 an hour document review jobs, which would square more in line with what I saw that recent grads were doing.

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    1. None of us will qualify, Ranjith.

    2. I don't think there are any "qualifications" required for the type of "loans" Ranjith is shilling.

      "Spam" by any other name.

  8. LP,

    maybe you can tie this hilarious quote into the upcoming post about dropping LSAT medians

    "The majority of prelaw students are actually overestimating the cost of attending law school."

  9. Credit is the handiwork of Satan. It merely inflates the price of good and services and enriches the phony charlatans and evil money counters.

  10. 10:56, find a CNN board to post to.

    As and far as law schools picking the cream of the crop - they are taking anything and everything they can get. You could list 10 or 12 law schools that have LSAT medians at or below an average test taker's capability, and at these schools, the median GPA is around 3.00, so we're not just talking about people who took the test cold/didn't bother studying and re-taking, they also struggled to maintain a B average in undergrad, which is pathetic.

    There are probably at least 6,000 of these students going to law school each year. The ABA requires a test, but doesn't require a threshold score. They could very easily do this and solve a majority of this problem overnight.

    1. I agree. What is the point of requiring the test if the score doesn't matter?

      Of course, if there were a threshold (how about 160?), we'd see people taking the test ten times in the hope of scraping through. And the rich kids who already get Daddy to put up thousands and thousands for private tutoring (to say nothing of "admissions consulting") would enjoy an even greater advantage.

      French law schools admit throngs and throngs of students, then cull them at the end of each year. Lots of people start law school; relatively few finish. Maybe that approach should be transplanted to this side of the ocean. Come to think of it, Cooley already does give a big chunk of its class the boot after the first year. Odd, isn't it, to think of Cooley as pointing the way forward?

  11. So if I go to the oil fields of North Dakota I can make enough money to pay off all my SL debt?

    I thought that was a joke, but someone around here says that it is so.

    But I need a little more info, and then I will get the tattoos all over my body and go.

    After all, the future is wide open:

  12. The most egregious actors in this game are those law schools which charge and enroll the most while offering the least in terms of employment outcome.

    In order for these bottom tier law schools to stay in business, they need suckers to sign their lives away to a mountain of debt.

    For last year's entering class, there are 37 law schools who enrolled at least 175 students and have LSAT medians of 154 or lower. (I think an average test-taker's ability is 152). Additionally, the median GPA reported for these 37 schools is typically between 2.9 and 3.2. (not good)

    So half of the student body at these schools have credentials which should bar them from attending law school, in my opinion. If you can't pull much above a B average OR be bothered to...ya for an exam to get a respectable score (or are otherwise mentally incapable of achieving it), then you just don't belong in law school.

    How many students matriculated to these 37 law schools last fall? 12,016 (class of 2014)

    How many matriculated the previous year? 13,492 (class of 2013)

    What will the class of 2015 look like? Probably less than 12,000, so some progress has been made, but it's too little too late for thousands of people.

    1. What possible justification could there be for paying Yale's rates to attend Bumblefuck U?

      1) There's such a desperate shortage of lawyers that even a C– from Bumblefuck will land me a cushy job whose income will easily support $200+k in non-dischargeable debt.

      We know that this is not the case.

      2) Yale would laugh in my face if I had the hardihood to apply. But I can get into Bumblefuck, and I've dreamt of being a lawyer ever since I was in leading strings. Damn the cost; I'm hellbent on becoming a lawyer, and that's that.

      Fine if your trust fund or your sugar daddy will cover the bills. Foolish otherwise.

    2. What are leading strings?

    3. Straps on the shoulders of a toddler's clothes. An adult holds them so as to support the child while she is learning to walk. Kind of old-fashioned.

      "In leading strings" means very young.

  13. Norma Desmond was an oil field owner, and talked about how her oil fields kept pumping and pumping in the movie "Sunset Boulevard"

    But shhhh. We don't want to wake up the monkey.

    1. Behold, a 47 year old simpleton.

  14. DJM, stop your fear mongering. A J.D. IS VERSATILE!!

    "If people would stop being singularly focused (law degree equals law job or person is failure and law schools are bad) we can put this greatly exaggerated debate to rest. Yes, people need to approach law school with a "buyer beware" mentality because there is not a plethora of law jobs available, but if they desire the degree, the chance to practice, and the opportunity to be seen as a valuable commodity in Corporate America as well, let them make the choice to go to law school instead of trying to deter them with partial and slanted information and fear mongering."

    - Professor Kendall D. Isaac.

    1. Where in Corporate America™ is a law graduate not working as a lawyer seen as a valuable commodity? She is seen there as another washed-up JD who couldn't get a job in law.

      It's true that some lawyers become CEOs and other corporate (mis)managers. But don't think that those positions are open to some recent JD from Bumblefuck U.

    2. Agreed. As another poster said earlier (maybe yesterday?), most people in Corporate America working as non-lawyers have a biglaw background. A fresh JD with no experience =/= an ideal candidate for these jobs.

    3. Lets quit this silly debate about whether law professors are over paid. Just pay all of them 30k a year.

    4. Kendall Duane Isaac is apparently quite the self-promoter. How many other 2005 JDs from the illustrious Capital University School of Law (LST full-time bar-req'd employment rate: 36%) obtained law professorships, even professorships at notoriously bottom-of-the-barrel schools like Appalachian School of Law (LST full-time bar-requ'd employment rate: 28%)?

      The "about me" section on Isaac's Avvo page fairly reeks of self-regard:

      "Armed with just a laptop and an unwavering faith in God, his law practice soared and experienced tremendous success in the arena of litigating, mediating, and ultimately resolving complex employment disputes.

      Today, Kendall continues his never-ending pursuit to infuse dignity and respect into the employee relations equation. As an attorney, litigator, mediator, educator, and advisor, he is determined to help his clients reach excellent outcomes to their employment problems. In fact, excellence and determination are the center of everything Mr. Isaac strives to accomplish. It is no wonder that he has long lived according to the simple I.D.E.A. that "If Determined…Excellence Awaits!""

      And, from his faculty page, we learn that this great scholar has, among his primary research interests, "trends relative to the growth and development of "lawyerpreneurs.""

      I, personally, am excited by this narcissist's pursuit of excellence in scampreneurship, especially his innovations in blending positive psychology and human resources buzzwords.


    5. Oh, yes, some two-bit hack was chosen by God Herself to lead the benighted multitudes to the Promised Land.

      Pardon me while I puke.

    6. A two-bit hack indeed.

      Enough said.

    7. Christ, what a dolt!

      And this Appalachian School of Law, according to its Web site, boasts a median LSAT score of 148. It's located in Grundy, Virginia. I don't even know where that is (although I've been all over that state), but the very name of the town is off-putting.

    8. More on the Appalachian School of Law. My analysis follows the double line.


      ASL graduates are prepared to pursue advanced law degrees at graduate and professional schools. Some of our alumni have continued their studies at institutions such as:

      Tulane University School of Law
      The University of Missouri
      The John Marshall Law School, Chicago

      We have a growing network of alumni who are making a difference in communities across the country through their law practice. They include:

      Amy Lawrence '08 and Justin Lovely '09, founders of The Lovely Law Firm, Myrtle Beach, S.C.; concentrates in criminal, personal injury, and civil litigation law
      Andrew Call '07, practices law in Chicago, continuing a 176-year family legacy; submitted numerous articles for publication in law journals
      Michael Orlando '06, Associate Attorney, Gilroy Law Firm, Tigard, Ore.; primarily focused on defending workers' compensation claims for self-insured employers
      Yasmeen Gumbs '04, Associate Attorney, mid-size law firm, Manhattan, N.Y.; concentrates in Automobile & Transportation and Insurance, defending no-fault insurance and property damage cases
      M. Suzanne Kerney-Quillen '03, Deputy Commonwealth's Attorney, Wise County, Va.; prosecutes cases in all courts with a primary emphasis on Narcotics Task Force cases; supervises cases handled in General District Court
      Kimothy Sparks '04, Director of Risk Management, Patient Safety, and Customer Service, Lovelace Health System, Albuquerque, N.M.


      No graduate is reported as doing advanced study at any university of note. The ones being showcased for their professional achievements are:

      1) A couple of people who started a little two-person firm.

      2) Someone who has ended his family's 176-year history in the legal profession by ceasing to practice while "seeking employment with federal courts as a term judicial clerk" ( This worthy has "submitted numerous articles for publication in law journals" but appears (I did a quick search) not to have been published anywhere.

      3) Two people in smallish law firms.

      4) One deputy state attorney.

      5) One administrator whose job seems to have little to do with the law and may well not have required a JD.

      Keep in mind that a law school won't showcase its least successful graduates. This contemptible toilet of a law school is presumably highlighting its best outcomes. And one of them requires birth to a line of lawyers extending back to the Jackson administration.

      Why the HELL should anyone even consider this godawful dump? Why is it even accredited?

    9. Something else (I don't know why I can't let this go): The Appalachian School of Law claims to be committed to its region (the Appalachian Mountains in and near Virginia). Yet only one of the seven graduates listed above lives there; the others are nowhere near Appalachia. So much for an urgently needed "regional" school.

    10. I have a friend who attended this school and then transferred to John Marshall. I wonder if she's one of those mentioned above who "continued" her studies at John Marshall. Regardless, she's now unemployed.

    11. Well, as his résumé at the link above shows, the celebrated Mr. Call of illustrious 176-year solicitorial pedigree has earned two LLMs and a certificate from John Marshall—no doubt another distinguished academy. He held two positions as "Legal Research Assistant" in 2008 and 2009, respectively, since which time he has been an "Independent Business and Research Consultant".

      Again, this gentleman appears to be one of the most accomplished graduates of the Appalachian School of Law. Imagine what happens to those students with no great-great-great-great-great-grandfather to get them a foot in the door.

    12. "It's located in Grundy, Virginia. I don't even know where that is(although I've been all over that state), but the very name of the town is off-putting."

      Hey, that's my surname!

    13. Oh man, small world. The first couple; I have met that "woman" a couple times. A spoiled brat who went with my spoiled brat friends from the law school I attended to Oxford for a nice little summer "study". Pretty sure she cheated on her now husband and law firm "partner". 90-95% sure as its been nearly a handful of years and my memory is constantly barraged. Couldn't believe the name and then double checked on Facebook - bingo. This is a success?! C'est la vie.

  15. 12:35. Agreed. As I stated yesterday, a JD is not enough to leverage your way into high-paying, non-legal jobs. It's the combination of JD plus BigLaw or some other credential or connection that seems to help.

    1. Sorry I missed this before making my comment (I referenced you above at 1:19). This is an important point you're making that needs to be reiterated. While a JD + biglaw (or some other similar credential) might be versatile, a JD by itself is not.

  16. Sigh, and now we have the good intentioned and naive Professor Kendall D. Isaac:

    Who is: A visually uncorporate and unshaved, sheltered, suckling law babe giving directions into the corporate woods of America, with a seemingly earnest countenance, and with tight fitting, natty, red suspenders as ornamentation and a calling card no less :)

    And so it shall be ever thus until the student loan sugar teat runs dry and is withdrawn for him and all of his ilk.

    All satire of course :)

  17. Last night, I had dinner at a highly rated (according to Zagat) restaurant where my waiter was overheard talking to the party seated next to my table. The conversation went something like this:

    Patron: Joey, I wasn't expecting to see you here. Didn't you graduate law school in May?

    Joey (Waiter): Yes I graduated and just took the bar exam. I should get my results in a couple of months since law firms won't hire until you have passed the bar.

    I wanted to take Joey aside and tell him that he is better off waiting tables as I am sure he earns more in tips than what entry level lawyers (non-Biglaw) make.

    Assuming Joey passes the bar, he has a long road ahead of him. On the bright side, he is employed and at least doesn't snub his nose on a noble job such as waiting tables. Perhaps Joey's humility will give him the edge to survive.

  18. Not sure it should be CNN in one phrase any more. Columbia seems to have significantly better job placement rates than either Chicago or NYU, if one looks at Law School Transparency 2011 statistics. It is still not enough - since maybe 30% of their students might land in not such great jobs, or maybe it is 15%. Very hard to tell the exact number of job failures there. You need to factor out 5% of the class or so that may decide not to practice law (like women having children, people going into a real business, etc.) and another 10% or so to go into some type of public service law, but still, even with what might be some of the best placement statistics in the country, Columbia's class should be cut by at least 15% for optimal placement results. Cuts at Chicago and NYU would have to be significantly bigger for optimal placement results.

  19. 3:01 eats at Zagat-rated restaurants, folks. In case you missed that. Very highly-rated

  20. Did you ever wonder that this post might have turned at least one person away from law school? The next post, at least one more...and so on. Unless you're one of the beautiful people, this site should be mandatory reading for those contemplating law school.

  21. Mac, the high IQ societies (of which I am not a member, however IQ figures into my work so I found them recently) will not use the LSAT as an entrance requirement because they can't access the data like the could with the old SAT and GMAT, etc.

    I'll give you the Triple Nine Society (99.9%) entrance requirements for your edification:

    I'm trying to think how my having an IQ approximately above 99.9% of the population has really helped me in terms of dealing with the actual part of law that matters to ongoing success, namely attracting business so that my book of business got larger.

    Oh, that's right. It doesn't help at all, and in fact, seems to make things worse.

    And here's what you really want, IQs in terms of occupations, Mac:

    I'm such a classic high intelligence underachiever.

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  23. Personally, this website is appalling. I might just create a post on my column about law professors who allow such things to happen. Miscreants who go about abusing other professors and law schools when all they're trying to do is educate students. A simple academic debate could suffice here. You are an academic after all are you not? Let me guess, some of you commenters didn't get accepted to law school for low LSAT scores, you didn't get hired as law professors, or you're just plain miserable beings? That's ok, wallow in your misery but not at the expense of the next-generation's success.

    Why doesn't the owner of this scam blog, Paul Campos, post his picture and a link to his school: The University of Colorado? Shall I do a post that links to that school and analyzes them too, alerting them of what somebody who takes a regular paycheck from them is doing to the industry? Perhaps do some reporting on the campus itself? Why not just quit and don't rub off your insults on the next-generation of students? At least the Moritz law school professor here has the nerve to show her face.

    The solution: have boundaries on your blog posts. Moderate comments so that they don't become harassing and stalkerish. Because after all, anonymous isn't really that anonymous in this world of brazen technology.

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